Predicting Surgical Risk Using Artificial Intelligence
About Risk Modeling
A risk prediction model is an analytical tool that uses health risk factors to estimate the likelihood of a patient experiencing a specific health outcome during their treatment or in the future, such as an adverse event—which is defined as a complication that can occur during medical care. The ability to reliably predict potential risk factors that can occur after surgery helps in:
- Surgical decision-making
- Counseling of patients and families
- Planning how to use available resources
- Measuring the quality of care
Using Artificial Intelligence to Model Risk
The Center for Outcomes & Patient Safety in Surgery (COMPASS) aims to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to predict and model surgical risk and determine the best interventions, or treatments, for high-risk patients. AI-powered medical technologies can analyze large amounts of data. Additionally, they enhance how medical professionals diagnose and treat patients and identify areas of patient care that require improvement, with the goal of improving patient outcomes.
Below are examples of ways that COMPASS is accomplishing this mission.
Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER)
POTTER is a highly accurate and user-friendly clinical decision support tool used to aid medical providers in predicting the likelihood of emergency surgery mortality (death) and morbidity (a disease or a symptom of disease). It was developed by a team of Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School (HMS) surgeons, along with mathematicians from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
View all publications related to POTTER
- Bertsimas D, Dunn J, Velmahos GC, Kaafarani HMA. Surgical Risk Is Not Linear: Derivation and Validation of a Novel, User-friendly, and Machine-learning-based Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) Calculator. Ann Surg. 2018 Oct;268(4):574-583. doi:10.1097/SLA.0000000000002956. PMID: 30124479
Trauma Outcomes Predictor (TOP)
TOP is an AI interactive smartphone tool used to predict outcomes for patients undergoing trauma and emergency surgery. It was developed by Mass General and HMS surgeons, along with mathematicians from MIT.
View all publications related to the TOP tool
- Maurer LR, Bertsimas D, Bouardi HT, El Hechi M, El Moheb M, Giannoutsou K, Zhuo D, Dunn J, Velmahos GC, Kaafarani HMA. Trauma Outcome Predictor (TOP): An Artificial-Intelligence (AI) Interactive Smartphone Tool to Predict Outcomes in Trauma Patients. J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2021 Mar 12. doi:10.1097/TA.0000000000003158. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33755641
Explore Mass General's Surgical Outcomes
COMPASS is committed to ensuring that surgical data is transparent and accessible for all patients as they make important health decisions.
Strengthening patient care through measurement & analysis of surgical outcomes and data
The Center for Outcomes and Patient Safety in Surgery (COMPASS) combines clinical collaboration and data to ensure, amongst all surgical and procedural colleagues, the safest, most appropriate and effective and highest quality procedure for every patient, every time.